World uranium prices have started to rise. After the news about the restriction of imports from Russia to the USA, they rose by 5%. Experts believe that there will not be a strong reaction, as the risks are already embedded in the current price. In principle, Russia will no longer need exports to the US, they believe.
The price of uranium with delivery in November rose on the spot market by 5% – up to $ 84 per pound. This was the market’s reaction to the restrictions imposed by the Russian government on exports of low-enriched uranium to the US. Deliveries are possible only as an exception – under one-off licences to be issued by the Federal Service for Technical and Export Control.
‘The market likes to get nervous about anything, but I think that in our case there will not be any strong reaction. They have been talking about possible sanctions and counter-sanctions on uranium products since 2022, and all fears have already been factored into the current price level,’ says Alexander Uvarov, director of AtomInfo-Centre.
Last winter, passions were even higher and uranium prices rose above $100 per pound.
Russian counter-sanctions mirror the US sanctions, i.e. they have not introduced a new element, Alexander Uvarov notes.
‘The fundamental point is that after the introduction of counter-sanctions, the return to trade as before will depend not only on the will of the US, but also on our goodwill. And it is not a fact that Russia will need it,’ the director of AtomInfo-Centre believes.
Russia is not a major uranium producer, but its global share in enrichment and conversion exceeds one-third. U.S. nuclear power plants produce 20% of U.S. electricity and the same percentage is supplied by low-enriched uranium from Russia. US uranium purchases from Russia in 2023 are estimated at $1.2bn.
In May this year, the US Congress passed and the president signed a law banning the import of low-enriched uranium from Russia. The document came into force in August, but it provides for exemptions until 2028, which US companies have taken advantage of. For example, Centrus Energy.
In September, Russian President Vladimir Putin instructed to consider limiting exports to unfriendly countries – so that it would not harm Russia itself. The government website says that the restrictions are being imposed on the instructions of Russian President Vladimir Putin as a retaliatory measure to the US restrictions imposed in 2024-2027 and the ban on imports of uranium products from Russia from 2028.