The U.S. space agency NASA has raised the probability that the newly discovered and Earth-threatening asteroid 2024 YR4 will collide with the Moon in 2032 to 3.8 percent.
Earlier in February, the figure was 1.7 percent. Then scientists also almost ruled out the asteroid’s fall to Earth after refining the data – the probability fell from 3.1 percent to 0.004 percent.
“Experts at NASA’s Near-Earth Object Research Center … have updated the probability of asteroid 2024 YR4 colliding with the Moon on December 22, 2032 <…> to 3.8 percent,” the statement reads.
With the help of the telescope “James Webb” agency also clarified the size of 2024 YR4 – according to the new data, its diameter is 53-67 meters. It is noted that the observatory will again zadeyuut for observation of the asteroid in May.
Asteroid 2024 YR4 was discovered on December 27, 2024 at the ATLAS observatory in Chile. Its diameter, tentatively, is about 70 meters. It is three to four times larger than the Chelyabinsk meteorite, which fell in the Urals on February 15, 2013, its size reached about 19.8 meters. The fall was without human casualties, but more than 1.6 thousand people were affected, 52 of whom were hospitalized.