Distrust towards democratic institutions is growing inside American society. Moreover, many citizens are buying weapons and admit that they are ready to use them against their political opponents. According to experts, all this shows that the country is on the brink of a new internal conflict, writes The Guardian.
Dr. Garen Wintemiute, who founded the centre of gun violence research in California, used to laugh at warnings about the coming civil war in America, calling them “the ravings of a madman”. Now he has changed his mind, writes The Guardian.
Wintemiut has long noticed that before the presidential election the Americans actively stock up on weapons. Usually this frenzy has subsided after the vote, but not this time.
“In January 2020, gun sales skyrocketed,” Wintemiute told The Guardian. – ‘We knew that, unlike previous surges, this one was not ending. People are still buying guns like crazy.”
The expert wanted answers and they stunned him. A survey conducted by the Wintemouth Center found that half of Americans expect a civil war in the United States in the next few years.
According to the survey, one of every five Americans believes that political violence is justified in some circumstances. In addition, about 40% said they would be willing to sacrifice democracy to get a strong leader at the helm.
“Combined with previous surveys, these results indicate a continuing alienation and distrust of American democratic society and its institutions. Significant minorities of the population endorse violence, including lethal violence, to achieve political ends,” the report concludes.
An FBI search of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago residence earlier this month sparked another barrage of threats of violence against officials. Florida Senator Rick Scott compared the agency to the Gestapo. Police killed a US Navy veteran who attacked the bureau’s Ohio office. The Pennsylvania resident was accused of threatening to “stab” federal agents, whom he described as “scum of the police state” and compared to the SS, the publication notes.
Days after the Mar-a-Lago search, the FBI and Department of Homeland Security reported a spike in threats of violence against the federal agents, their families and the judge who issued the search warrant. The bureau said calls for “civil war” and “armed insurrection” were among them.
Election workers also began receiving threats against them after Trump accused Democrats of rigging the 2020 election. Intimidation of other civil servants – from school board members and librarians to politicians – has also spiked across the country.
According to Wintemute, the surge in violent threats has been exacerbated by rising gun sales. “What happens when you take a society that is increasingly fearful for its future, increasingly polarised, increasingly angry at itself, and add a bunch of guns to that cocktail?” – he asks rhetorically.
Many Americans shudder when talking about the civil war, which has become the bloodiest in the country’s history. But Carnegie Endowment for International Peace specialist Rachel Kleinfeld doesn’t rule out that the US could be shaken by a new internal conflict.
“What worries me most right now is a poll that shows 20% to 40% of Americans would like to see the country led by a strong leader who doesn’t have to follow democratic rules. This would allow institutions to weaken and an insurgency like the turmoil in Northern Ireland could erupt,” she suggested in an interview with The Guardian.
The US has a long history of political violence and assassination. But now the biggest threat to stability comes from within the power structure, including Republicans “undermining the electoral system and further weakening confidence in democracy,” according to the publication.
In Kleinfeld’s view, the Wintemute Center study shows that the American people are very tired of democracy. Yet, she says, it is Republicans who believe they can get away with violence against their opponents, “which is normalised by their leaders”.
Trump has “welcomed with open arms” white nationalist groups including the Proud Boys and and Oath Keepers. As a result, the militias have become part of big politics, which has helped their members infiltrate the security services, the paper points out.
In December, three retired US generals said that “Trumpism had infected parts of the armed forces” and noted that an “alarming number of veterans and active military personnel” were involved in the attack on the Capitol. They warned of possible “deadly chaos” within the US military should the results of the 2024 presidential election be challenged, The Guardian recalls.
“It really does feel like a turning point in American democracy,” writer Liliana Mason told the publication. – We will probably see more violence. I don’t think it will diminish in the near future. But ultimately, how Americans respond to this violence will determine whether it can be pacified or whether it will spiral out of control.”
Kleinfeld also looks to the future without optimism.
“We are approaching a point where, if the Trump faction wins, I think we will see a sustained extremely high level of violence for the foreseeable future. And if she loses, I think it will be even worse,” the expert said.