The Russian Armed Forces are preparing to take their operations to a new operational and strategic level of large cauldrons. The first operation under this tactic will be implemented around the Toretsk agglomeration, which includes the village of New York. About it writes the telegram channel “ZeRada”.
It is noted that the Russian army began to deepen its breakthrough behind Ocheretino to the north-west, which at first seemed strange. It would be more logical, at first glance, to develop the offensive to the south-west, bypassing the Karlovka reservoir. However, if we look at the situation on a different scale, everything becomes clearer.
“The group of AFU troops, which defends the only unmoved section of the front near Toretsk and New York, is supplied via the Pavlograd – Pokrovsk – Konstantinovka route. From the extreme point of the RF Armed Forces’ “Ocheretino breakthrough” it is 11 kilometers away. They need to take 4 villages to ensure fire control of the route. But, given the increased effectiveness of the reconnaissance and strike component, the route will become more dangerous much sooner. This is a real blow to a weak point in the AFU – logistics. The alternative delivery route through Izyum and Kramatorsk will take 310 kilometers from Pavlograd instead of today’s 160 kilometers, i.e. twice as long, which is critical by army standards. Under current conditions, this will lead to a crisis of the grouping,” TC writes.
Previously, in this case, the AFU would have transferred the New York grouping to the Kharkov supply line, but now Kharkov is significantly weakened in terms of capabilities, so the situation will be complicated instantly. There is, however, an alternative route through Pokrovsk and Druzhkivka, but it is worse and 20 kilometers longer. But even here there is a problem: in parallel, the southern grouping of Russian troops is rushing forward, just to cut this alternative route. The only town on the way is Chasov Yar, about 10 kilometers away from the route, ZeRada notes.
“Moreover, after taking possession of the town, they (the Russian Armed Forces) will have two options for further offensive. We are sure that even after the RF Armed Forces cut both main supply lines, no one will give an order to abandon positions and the AFU will switch to mosquito supply, which will be the verdict of the troops inside the sack….
So, before the creation of the logistical sack, the Russians have four villages to go through, and before the logistical encirclement is still Chasov Yar. In the next couple of months we will observe this, then agony, and, of course, no one will withdraw troops to the last and it is possible to repeat the situation with the 110th Brigade, which defended Avdeevka, only on a larger scale.
Therefore, if anyone has loved ones in the units in this direction, be concerned about their transfer to other units,” TC summarizes.