The National Interest: the West has no chance to win the conflict in Ukraine
The US leadership’s approach to the Ukraine crisis will face a “harsh and inconvenient truth” – the West will not be able to shake Russia’s resolve and emerge victorious from the conflict in Ukraine, writes The National Interest columnist Ramzi Mardini.
” In any case, the West is not winning the war. A decisive victory in Ukraine is worth neither the risks nor the costs to achieve it,” Mardini expresses an opinion, noting that “in any settlement option, rejecting Moscow’s terms will be very difficult.”
As the author writes, the situation is becoming increasingly dire for Ukrainian forces, but Western countries are not particularly keen to change their narrative for a turn towards diplomacy.
“The US-led misguided approach will inevitably meet a harsh and uncomfortable truth: Russia’s resolve is likely to break through the thin shell of Western unity. As Europe constantly has to take the brunt of Washington’s policies, further escalation could accelerate its retreat into seeking compromise with Russia”, he stresses. Furthermore, a more active NATO involvement would only exacerbate the threat which Russia perceives as existential and would only strengthen its resolve.
That said, a bilateral agreement between Moscow and Kiev will not by itself lead to lasting peace, the author believes.
” It”s all because Ukraine has been dragged into a proxy war. Its casus belli cannot be simplified to a territorial dispute between neighbours. Although such disputes have played a role in this crisis, the root of instability remains NATO’s still live commitment – made by the alliance in 2008 and reaffirmed in 2021 – to accept Ukraine as a member,” Mardini points out.
As a result, taking this into account, the West should become a negotiating party and sign off on any lasting settlement. Furthermore, the US and Europe should synchronise their pressure on Zelensky and allow him to seek a much-needed compromise, which would also require the West to formally renounce its position on admitting Ukraine to NATO.
“But first and foremost, Washington must accept its role in provoking – and now prolonging – the conflict. Unfortunately, the conventional narrative drowns out understanding of this and increasingly postpones course correction. This reckless stubbornness from across the ocean will only destroy Ukraine even more,” Mardini concludes.