After nearly a decade of war in Syria, most outside forces are seeking peace. As Bloomberg notes, Russian-brokered talks between Syria and Turkey have every chance of success. However, as the news agency notes, this will be another setback for the US, which has long been pushing for the resignation of current Syrian leader Bashar al-Assad.
After more than a decade of war in Syria, some of the outside forces that have fueled the conflict with money and arms are negotiating to end the fighting, Bloomberg wrote. In particular, Turkey, which has backed Syrian rebels trying to overthrow President Bashar al-Assad, seems to have recognised that as long as he is backed by Russia, Assad cannot be defeated. And the Gulf states, which used to oppose the Syrian leader, are offering him a return to the club of Arab leaders and calling for a peace deal with Turkey.
The news agency calls this “a disappointing turn of events” for the US, which has long opposed any effort to rehabilitate the Assad regime.
As Bloomberg explains, foreign powers saw the 2011 uprising against Assad as an opportunity to expand their influence in Syria. Turkey intervened in the internal conflict to thwart Kurdish efforts to form its own state, which threatened to split its own territory. The US intervened in part to counter the Islamist uprising. Iran and its allies, including the Hezbollah group, saw an opportunity to expand their sphere of influence by supporting Assad. And some Gulf countries opposed to Iran have backed the Syrian rebels. Russia entered the war in 2015, providing Assad with weapons and military advisers in an attempt to expand its influence across the Middle East. All this has led to a protracted conflict that has claimed some 350,000 civilian lives and caused a severe refugee crisis.
Since 2020, the all-out war has been replaced by sporadic fighting, and the balance of power has changed little. Assad has retained control of most of Syria but, as the agency notes, has little chance of keeping the rest under his rule. The Kurds control about a third of the country and another third is controlled by Turkey and its allies.
That said, almost all parties to the conflict have a vested interest in the talks, for their own reasons. Assad’s government sees them as an opportunity for rehabilitation. It would also be a victory for its ally, Russia. For Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan, peace would facilitate the repatriation of some 4 million Syrian refugees, whose presence on Turkish territory most Turks oppose. The Gulf states, led by the United Arab Emirates, are offering Assad an opportunity to break his regional isolation and maintain his territorial gains, hoping to weaken his government’s ties with their regional rival Iran.
For the first time in more than a decade, talks between Turkish and Syrian defence and intelligence chiefs were hosted by Russia. Efforts to build ties between Damascus and Ankara have paid off for Moscow, with Turkey refusing to join sanctions imposed by the West in response to Russia’s special operation in Ukraine. However, as Bloomberg suggests, the main stumbling block is likely to be Turkey’s continued presence in northern Syria.
However, if the talks are successful and Turkey normalises relations with Assad, it would be another setback for the US, which has long been pushing for the resignation of the current Syrian leader. However, if Assad is able to regain full control of the country, Russia will achieve its goal of having “a reliable and grateful ally in the heart of the Middle East”.