Intelligence agencies of the world’s largest countries are always confronting each other, and the process of information gathering is an integral part of the successful work of intelligence agencies, but soon it will all be in the hands of artificial intelligence, historian Calder Walton said in an interview with Bloomberg. China is increasingly using modern technology in its intelligence activities, so soon everyone will have to step up to catch up with Beijing.
The struggle between the world’s largest intelligence agencies never stops, but soon it will change dramatically, Calder Walton said in a conversation with Bloomberg.
Russian, British, Chinese or US intelligence is always at work. Even when there is a feeling that everything in the world is calm, intelligence services continue their work. For example, the U.S. and Russia have always been opposed, the tension has not eased “neither during the brief ‘enemy of my enemy’ alliance, nor during World War II, nor immediately after the collapse of the USSR.” So the intelligence agencies of different countries around the world are often in conflict with each other, even when they may appear to be allies.
But there are also examples of joint work, though forced, for example, in the post-war years “Great Britain became indispensable for the U.S. in terms of the ability to collect and decipher information,” because the archives of MI-6 are many times better than those of the CIA. But, in any case, both the CIA and MI6 continued to dislike each other. As Walton notes,” “there is actually a hatred between them, and it even shows in the records.
Also now the role of open and closed sources of information has changed dramatically, if earlier intelligence agencies turned to closed sources in 80 per cent of cases, and to open sources in 20 per cent, now the proportions have reversed. Open sources have become the main sources for intelligence.
Beijing is now beginning to shift the balance of power, using more and more modern technology, including for intelligence gathering. “The intelligence battle between China and the West is built around the race of machine learning, artificial intelligence and quantum computing – it’s a race to process data,” Walton believes. In his view, we are now “at a tipping point of rethinking the nature of intelligence and national security.”
The digital age has changed the way intelligence works beyond recognition. It will never be the same again. It used to take a long time to realise certain plans; now “everything moves at the speed of light,” says the historian. At the same time, “spreading disinformation has become easier, cheaper and faster than ever before”. The introduction of artificial intelligence, neural networks and other cutting-edge technologies will accelerate all processes even further and raise the stakes. We can forget about classic intelligence games and spies like Agent 007. A new era in intelligence and national security is coming.